Daily Note- Disunity

brexit-3Summary: 

  • Brexit spill over into Europe . . .
  • US: Weekly claims drop back
  • UK: Robust retail sales report

 

Good Morning,

Brexit: Is it in the price?

Markets remain relatively more sanguine than polls: Opinion polls show a 44% chance of a Brexit, while betting agencies implied odds are lower at 28%; just 13% of the respondents in our most recent client survey believed the UK will leave the EU. Opinion polls can be misleading (as in the UK general election) and change significantly in the four weeks prior to a vote (as in the Scottish referendum, where there was a 15-point swing).

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GlobalMacro360 Daliy Note 20th May 2016-2

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