Daily Note – Political lessons

British flagSummary:

Unstable Britain

United States: Consumer Confidence slows in April

United Kingdom: Early estimate of GDP a little on the light side

Eurozone: French Consumer Confidence improves in April

Good morning,

I was watching “Michael Collins” last night with the kids – a history lesson which had their poor Ulster mum a little bit squeamish! But it focused their minds on what is happening in the UK as they were able to make the connection between then and now in terms of nationalism.

Nationalism is a big thing and is not really phased by economic data. Therefore the big issues which will swing the UK electorate, at least in terms of who will hold the balance of power, are already sewn up. See my notes from Scotland last week

UK GDP slowed to 0.3% in Q1 2015 (0.4% excluding energy) the lowest figure recorded since Q4 2012. Weakness in manufacturing was to be expected; the slowdown was much more the result of business services and finance (30.7% of GVA), which grew by only 0.1% – its slowest rate of growth since Q4 2010.

 

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Global Macro-Daily Note 29th April 2015

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