Daily Note- ‘Remain’ campaign further ahead

Keep-EU & UK FlagSummary:

  • FOMC minutes shake up
  • UK: Employment slack

 

 

Good Morning,

The FOMC Minutes shook up sleepy June hike expectations and set the stage for a far-more-interesting month ahead. The US dollar jumped on the headlines but GBP was still the top performer on the day (see below for more).

The FOMC Minutes are often the most over-hyped release on the calendar but once in a while they rock markets and that was the case on Wednesday. The dollar had been under steady pressure and was at session lows moments before the release but it rocketed higher afterwards. The minutes said that most Fed members want to hike rates if growth, inflation and jobs all make progress before the June 15 meeting. In the Fed funds futures market, that sent the implied probability of a hike up to 32% from 14% (and from 4% at the start of the week). The US dollar gained 70-130 pips across the board in the aftermath of the release.

Download a FULL PDF version of the Daily Note

GlobalMacro360 Daliy Note 19th May 2016

Disclaimer

The statements, opinions and analyses presented in the articles, newsletters, and other materials appearing on this website are provided as general information and for educational purposes. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this website is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. David McWilliams shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.



Categories: Daily Note