Daily Note- The big picture

big_picture_lightbulbSummary:

  • Mixed US dollar news
  • US: Trade balance has improved
  • Eurozone: Business confidence has improved

 

Good Morning,

Our big picture views are well known. We are Dollar bulls. We think the tightening cycle that we expect (through 2019) maps into a stronger greenback. We are very bearish with the Yen, since we believe there is only one way forward for the BoJ in its pursuit of reflation – to continue surprising markets on the dovish side. We remain Euro bears and have kept our forecast for the trough in EUR/$ unchanged at 0.90 on a three-year horizon. However, recent ECB meetings have disappointed us and we have scaled back our expectation for EUR/$ downside near-term.

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GlobalMacro360 Daliy Note 26th May 2016-2

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The statements, opinions and analyses presented in the articles, newsletters, and other materials appearing on this website are provided as general information and for educational purposes. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this website is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. David McWilliams shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.



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