Daily Note- The big picture


  • Mixed US dollar news
  • US: Trade balance has improved
  • Eurozone: Business confidence has improved


Good Morning,

Our big picture views are well known. We are Dollar bulls. We think the tightening cycle that we expect (through 2019) maps into a stronger greenback. We are very bearish with the Yen, since we believe there is only one way forward for the BoJ in its pursuit of reflation – to continue surprising markets on the dovish side. We remain Euro bears and have kept our forecast for the trough in EUR/$ unchanged at 0.90 on a three-year horizon. However, recent ECB meetings have disappointed us and we have scaled back our expectation for EUR/$ downside near-term.

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GlobalMacro360 Daliy Note 26th May 2016-2


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