Daily Note – US Rebound?


US reaccelerating?

United Kingdom: MPC diverging views?



Good morning,

I am just going to focus on the US this morning.

I don’t put too much weight on the weakness in United States Q1 GDP print. It will probably be revised into negative territory later this month. Other, more reliable indicators show that growth slowed only modestly in Q1 and may be reaccelerating now. These indicators include payrolls, the ISMs, claims and consumer confidence.

In the past, large undershoots of GDP vs monthly activity data have on average been resolved entirely via subsequent acceleration in GDP rather than a slowdown in activity. My confidence that this time will be no different is enhanced further by the harsh winter, which should set us up for a rebound in Q2.


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Global Macro-Daily Note 21th May 2015


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