United States: Some thoughts on US equity and bonds
Eurozone: Tsipras falling in polls
China: Is QE coming to China?
Cold one in Dublin this morning. Apologies for being late but I had to listen to a global CEO speak this morning in town.
One of our core views remains that while we see the Federal Reserve hiking rates at least once this year, this process, while likely to create volatility, will in the medium-term be a pleasant experience.
1) That the first rate hike when it comes (June or September) will likely be the start of a very slow and gradual move higher in Fed rates.
2) That the rate path would be shallower than past hiking cycles (warranted by weak demand, spare capacity and deflationary pricing pressures)
3) That constraints on credit growth would continue to limit the scope for growth and inflation surprises
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