Daily Note – Where do we go from there?


United States: Some thoughts on US equity and bonds

Eurozone: Tsipras falling in polls

China: Is QE coming to China?



Good morning,

Cold one in Dublin this morning. Apologies for being late but I had to listen to a global CEO speak this morning in town.

One of our core views remains that while we see the Federal Reserve hiking rates at least once this year, this process, while likely to create volatility, will in the medium-term be a pleasant experience.

We argued:

1) That the first rate hike when it comes (June or September) will likely be the start of a very slow and gradual move higher in Fed rates.

2) That the rate path would be shallower than past hiking cycles (warranted by weak demand, spare capacity and deflationary pricing pressures)

3) That constraints on credit growth would continue to limit the scope for growth and inflation surprises


Download a FULL PDF version of the Daily Note:

Global Macro-Daily Note 28th April 2015


The statements, opinions and analyses presented in the articles, newsletters, and other materials appearing on this website are provided as general information and for educational purposes. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this website is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. David McWilliams shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.

Categories: Daily Note