Echoes of 1998?

Armed men drive an airborne combat vehicle with a Russian flag seen on the top outside Kramatorsk


Ukraine still on the brink
United States: All eyes on Janet
United States: Existing home sales slow
United Kingdom: Growth picking up
Eurozone: German confidence higher



Good morning,

It is almost a year now and the skirmish that most (not us) predicted would be over in a few weeks rumbles on. This time last year, I suggested that Putin would outsource bad behaviour in Ukraine to local militias much like the Serbs in Belgrade had done in Bosnia in 1992. That now appears to be the Russian tactic.

This week, fighting rages on in eastern Ukraine. Despite European efforts to resurrect a failed ceasefire, pro-Russian separatists, who spurned the truce, forced thousands of government troops out of a strategic town. Western nations have refused to give up on a peace deal negotiated last week even though rebels disavowed it and seized the strategic railway hub of Debaltseve. Reuters reports that thousands of besieged Ukrainian troops pulled out of the town last week in one of the worst defeats for the Kiev government of a 10-month war that has killed more than 5,000 people.

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Global Macro-Daily Note 24th February 2015


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