Is Europe Recovering?

euSummary

European Data reasonably strong
More going on than just Greece
Eurozone: No progress on Greece; exit risk elevated
The Week Ahead: Fed & ECB minutes

Good morning,

The big macro story for us is QE and a European economy that sees GDP growth surprise on the upside, not Greece. In real terms, euro area GDP rose by 0.3% in Q4 2014, the seventh consecutive quarterly increase, led by 0.7% in Germany and Spain. France grew by a disappointing 0.1% on the quarter, while Italy flat-lined.

Notably, consumption picked up markedly in Germany, along with increases in investment in plant and machinery, and especially construction. German exports and imports increased, also encouraging developments. The euro area’s recovery could pick up further momentum, underpinned by a lower oil price, a much weaker euro, a decisive acceleration in broad money M3 and improving financial conditions. All these trends are helped by QE.

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Global Macro-Daily Note 17th February 2015

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