New Russia

UkraineSummary

Ukraine: tensions build
Eurozone: Pressure mounts on the ECB
United States: Q2 GDP revised up

 

 

Good morning,

I can’t state enough this simple fact: Russia Matters. Russia and what happens next in Ukraine affect the German supply chain and the German supply chain is the single most important industrial piece of the European economy. Let us focus on the Russian invasion of Ukraine which begun yesterday.

Those with long memories will know this is what happened in Bosnia where the local Serbs’ independence campaign was orchestrated – at arms length – from Belgrade. We are not seeing a re-run of Bosnia 1992, but we are seeing very similar tactics. The language of Serb expansion in the Balkans centred on the slogan of “Greater Serbia”, which described foreign jurisdictions where Serbs lived such as Croatia and Bosnia.

The Russians have a similar term and a similar concept. It is called ‘Novorossiya’ and overnight Russian President Vladimir Putin deployed the term “Novorossiya.”

The word literally means “new Russia” — it was an old, imperial-era term for southern Ukraine, when it was part of the Russian Empire. Now it is a term used by Russian ultra-nationalists who want to re-conquer the area.

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Global Macro-Daily Note 29th Aug 2014

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