The Wisdom of Solomon


Russia ruined
US doesn’t want to see the end of Putin
These are the times gold bugs live for
United States: Housing data in line
United States: All eyes on the Fed

Good morning,

You always know that the war is lost when the central bank jacks up rates to incredible levels. 17% interest rates in a slowing economy do not make a policy credible, they make it incredible. I saw this for myself as a young economist in the Irish central bank, when we hiked rates in 1993 to defend the currency from attack. It made things worse.

The Russian central bank is losing.

The Russian central bank is fighting a fire that’s out of control. They’ve intervened, they’ve nearly doubled rates overnight and yet the rouble is still collapsing. Exchange controls are next.

No one wants a crisis in Russia. You don’t want a nuclear power backed into a corner. Just as things looked bleak for Russia, John Kerry has stepped in to try to steady the ship, suggesting sanctions could have been lifted months ago and could be lifted in days depending on what decisions the Kremlin takes.

Download a FULL PDF version of the Daily Note:

Global Macro-Daily Note 17th December 2014


  • The statements, opinions and analyses presented in the articles, newsletters, and other materials appearing on this website are provided as general information and for educational purposes. Opinions, estimates and probabilities expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. Nothing contained in this website is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. David McWilliams shall not be responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided.

Categories: Daily Note