Weekly Note – The Return of Volatility

Good Day,

While it is tempting to jump straight into this week’s market volatility – let’s take a step back to the end of last week.

Friday’s United States jobs report showed yet more strength. Non-farm payrolls rose 200k in January, and back data were revised up. At this point, trend payroll growth looks to be almost twice our roughly 100k estimate of the “breakeven pace”. By contrast, the household survey was a bit light, with the fourth 4.1% reading for the unemployment rate in a row. The reason for the recent stagnation is that job growth in the household survey has been far below the establishment survey since mid-2017.

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GM360 Note – 8th February 2018

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Categories: Daily Note